by Peter Knight | May 11, 2023 | News
How popular is basic income among the general public and different groups within it? Although many argue that this question is hugely important for the political feasibility of public opinion, the current scientific evidence is very much scattered. This book provides the most-up-to date and fine-grained overview of the popularity of basic income that is currently available.
Using data from a wide array of public opinion polls conducted in different countries and years, the book first charts popular support for the ideal-typical version of basic income, broadly defined as a “periodic cash payment unconditionally delivered to all on an individual basis, without means-test or work requirement”. On top of that, the book maps popular support for the many other, differently designed varieties of basic income that are part of real-world proposals, pilots, and experiments – including, for example, a participation income, a negative income tax, and a stakeholder grant.
By investigating how and why support for different types of basic income varies across countries, evolves over time, and differs between individuals with different characteristics, this book offers crucial information about the political constituencies that can be mobilized in favor of (or against) the introduction of basic income, thereby contributing to our knowledge on the political feasibility of basic income.
The book can be accessed here. In case of questions, please contact the author at tijs.laenen@kuleuven.be.
by Karl Widerquist | Nov 4, 2021 | Opinion, The Indepentarian
Two polls conducted in 2021 both found that a substantial majority of Americans now support Universal Basic Income (UBI) or some form of Guaranteed Income. One survey, conducted by Data for Progress, found that 55% of Americans support UBI while 39% oppose it. Another survey, by Skynova, found 67% of Americans support UBI while 20% oppose it.
Compare these findings to a poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports back in 2011. Rasmussen found that only 11% of Americans supported a Basic Income and 82% opposed it.
If we take these polls at face-value, they indicate support for UBI has increased by 6 times, and opposition to it has declined by 3/4ths. If so, the ratio has risen from 8-to-1 against to 3-to-1 in favor.
But of course, no one takes polls at face-value. The headline phrase, “polls indicate” (which I used in the headline), is a bit of an exaggeration, because it assumes a very simplistic, face-value reading of the two most extreme polls. Not even pollsters take poll results at face-value. Polling is a highly imperfect attempt to find out what people think. A good deal of the misunderstanding about polls comes not from the pollsters trying to get people to believe their findings, but from readers wanting to believe polls are more reliable than they are.
Given recent changes in the political dialogue in the United States and the world, it is unsurprising that U.S. support for UBI has increased, but to go from more than 8-to-1 opposed to as much as 3-to-1 is probably an exaggeration.
Some of the difference between polls can be attributed to differences in how the questions are worded.
The 2011 Rasmussen Report poll asked, “Another proposal has been made for the federal government to provide every single American with a basic income grant. The idea would be to provide enough money for everyone to enjoy a modest living regardless of whether or not they choose to work. Do you favor or oppose having the federal government provide every single American with a basic income grant?”
The 2021 Data for Progress poll asked “A guaranteed income is a policy that would provide monthly payments of around $500-$1,000 to individuals, regardless of their employment status and with no strings attached. Would you support or oppose implementing a guaranteed income in the U.S.?”
The 2021 Skynova poll report does not include the exact wording of the question. Their report simply reads, “Respondent Support of Universal Basic Income.”
The Rasmussen survey was worded more negatively than the Data for Progress survey. It didn’t mention a specific amount, and implied it would be rather high. The Data for Progress survey mentioned a specific—and rather modest—amount. Although all three polls seem to focus on a genuine UBI (rather than some other form of guaranteed income), they use three different names for it, “Basic Income Grant,” “Guaranteed Income,” and “Universal Basic Income.” How this wording might affect the results is hard to guess.
Other reasons poll results differ include the methods they use to contact a representative sample of people and the biases of the people conducting the survey alsot. Right-of-center pollsters tend to find results a little closer to what right-of-center people want to be true, and left-of-center pollsters tend to find results a little closer to what left-of-center people want to be true. Rasmussen tends to be right-leaning. Data for Progress and Skynova are more left leading.
Yet, it’s hard to imagine that the differences between the various pollsters’ techniques could account for the stark change from 2011 to 2021. Even though they are highly imperfect, it is likely that the difference between 2011 and 2021 reflects a major shift in U.S. public opinion. In 2011, UBI and other forms of Guaranteed Income had been absent from mainstream political discussion for 30 years. Today, UBI is increasingly a part of mainstream discussion as people with very different perspectives have come together in support of the idea.
The more modest of the two 2021 surveys (Data for Progress) still found substantial majority support for UBI: 55-39. Even if this finding is correct, it does not mean that UBI is on the verge of introduction. Majority opinion fluctuates widely, and the U.S. system has many barriers to enacting the majority’s will. The laws are more closely correlated to opinions of the donor class than to the opinion of voters. Although many mayors across the country have endorsed UBI, only a few members of Congress have gone on record for it so far. UBI still faces an uphill struggle.
Yet, UBI is on the table. People are taking the idea seriously. Support is growing. There is no telling how far that will go.
-Karl Widerquist, first draft Dallas Airport October 2021, final draft Anis Café, Doha, Qatar, October 26, 2021
Further info:
My blog post about the 2021 survey:
The Rasmussen Report survey from 2011:
The two surveys from this year:
by Malcolm Torry | Sep 7, 2020 | News
Philippe Van Parijs, ‘Godfather of the UBI movement’ as Prospect magazine has called him, has been voted number 8 in the magazine’s poll.
Dreams of “incomes for all” trace way back—Thomas Paine proposed one scheme. But even before the government picked up the wage bill for millions of furloughed workers, Universal Basic Income was an ambition coming of age. The rapid automation of labour switches the question from how national income can be earned, to how it might be distributed. Today’s young UBI enthusiasts draw on the books and tap the networks of this Belgian polymath, who championed it before it was fashionable. For decades, he has warned that our proclaimed freedoms to start businesses or raise children count for nothing without the real freedom that comes with a basic income.
The full list of the fifty thinkers nominated for the poll, and the list of the top ten, can be found here. The winner was KK Shailaja, Kerala’s Health Minister.
by Malcolm Torry | May 10, 2020 | News, Research
FEPS (the Foundation for European Progressive Studies) has published the results of a wide-ranging opinion survey:
Across the EU14 a plurality of citizens support the idea of universal basic income. Respondents who fully agree (24%) and are somewhat supportive (22%) led to a combined total of 46 per cent. Those who are fully opposed (15%) and somewhat opposed (14%) were 29 per cent of the total sample.
At the Member State level, support for UBI is highest in Germany (62%) and lowest in Portugal (35%). These numbers are in line with our previous survey results that showed currently Portuguese have greater faith in the promise of hard work and entrepreneurship than Germans. …
The public is only just beginning to form opinions on this matter. Awareness is largely driven by the media with attention-grabbing headlines capturing the public’s imagination as politicians warily enter the debate.
This burgeoning understanding about UBI’s meaning and real-life application is reflected in the largely even spread of responses across the agree to disagree spectrum. It is also seen in the fact that every fourth respondent (25%) did not have an opinion about or have mixed feelings toward UBI. …
To read the full report, click here. The section on Basic Income starts on page 66.
Readers might like to compare the results with those of a more detailed survey conducted in 2017.
.
by Andre Coelho | Jul 23, 2019 | News
Echelon Insights has developed a poll where, amongst other issues, has questioned 1006 registered voters about Andrew Yang’s universal basic income (UBI) policy (to be implemented if he’s elected). It turns out that, globally, support for UBI is tightly close to opposition to it (40% support vs 43% opposed), within the surveyed sample.
However, further questions in the poll reveal exactly who is in support and in opposition to the UBI idea as proposed by Yang. Supportive are younger, Democratic voters with lower incomes. Less supportive are older, richer and politically inclined to the Right voters. Breaking down the numbers, the following charts clearly show these trends.
More information at:
Tyler McDonald, “Andrew Yang’s UBI Has The Most Support From Democrats, Voters Under 50, And Earners Under $50,000”, Inquisitr, July 13th 2019
